Every year there’s a slew of predictions of what the prices of batteries could be in 5, 10 or even 15 years. Over the past though we’ve seen almost all of these predictions get smashed. Every year they get revised to be even lower. Only to go even lower again the next year… and the next.
What we can be certain about though is how much battery prices have dropped in the past! Now a study by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has found that it’s actually a quite astounding amount.
BNEF’s lithium-ion battery price index shows a fall from $1,000 per kWh in 2010 to $209 per kWh in 2017. – BNEF
That is a staggering cost reduction of 79% in just 7 years! To put that kind of progress in context if it continues at that rate batteries would cost just $44 / kWh by 2024.
This would mean a future Tesla Powerwall 7 (or whatever number they’re up to by then) that cost the same as it does now could be filled with 65 kWh of storage in it or be almost 5 times as big.
Funnily enough too this mythical Powerwall 7 would essentially be enough for most houses to go entirely off grid assuming they also had a 10 kW solar system installed on their roof. They’d even be able to operate sans grid with an EV or two.
Not Just For Home Storage
What’s more likely though is for manufacturers to significantly reduce the product price. If we’re looking at an EV containing a 50 kWh battery – something that can get you an EPA rated range of around 350 km’s / 220 miles – it could mean a price reduction of $10,450 -> $2,200.
That’s a huge amount when you’re talking about car component prices. It also means that by 2024 EV’s will likely get to a price point that is even cheaper than their comparable combustion car.
Hopefully it happens even quicker than that and if TaaS (Transport as a Service) really takes off it might not even matter. Exciting times!
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